Ohio Republicans may have a gas problem this year

For the past few years, Republicans successfully campaigned on inflation, affordability and rising energy costs. In Ohio, those messages resonated with working families, suburban commuters and rural voters who spend more time on the road than much of the country. Now with fuel prices climbing again, Republicans risk facing the same economic frustration once used against Democrats.

In politics, voters almost always vote from their pocketbook.

This is fundamental in Ohio, where driving is not optional for most people. Outside major cities, public transportation is limited or nonexistent. People commute long distances to work. Contractors drive trucks. Farmers operate expensive equipment. Small businesses absorb shipping and transportation costs every day. When gas prices rise, the effects spread quickly through nearly every corner of the economy.

According to AAA Ohio Gas Prices, Ohio’s statewide average for regular gasoline recently climbed above $4.65 per gallon, significantly higher than $3.06 one year ago. Diesel prices have also surged, creating additional pressure on agriculture, trucking and manufacturing industries central to Ohio’s economy.

Fuel prices affect far more than commuting costs. Higher gas prices push up grocery prices, restaurant costs, deliveries, construction expenses and utility bills. School districts pay more for buses. Local governments pay more for vehicle fleets and road operations. Families stretched by inflation are starting to cut back elsewhere.

Voters notice this.

When a political party spends years telling voters energy prices are a direct reflection of leadership, voters eventually begin applying the same standard universally. Fair or not, many voters do not separate global conflicts, oil production decisions and international markets from the politicians they see on television every day. They simply ask are they better off now than they were from the last election.

Right now, many Ohioans would answer no.

Republicans will argue with some legitimacy that presidents and governors do not directly control gas prices.

Also, there is still time for conditions to change before November. Gas prices can be volatile and may ease quickly with shifts in supply, refinery output, or global markets. If prices stabilize or decline heading into the fall, some voter frustration could ease as well.

The political danger for Republicans won’t be Democratic gains. It may be something quieter and potentially more damaging: Republican voters simply staying home in November.

Modern elections are increasingly driven by turnout. Ohio remains a Republican-leaning state, but margins matter. Rural counties, outer suburbs and blue-collar communities form the new backbone of the Ohio GOP coalition since the last three presidential election cycles. Ironically, these same voters are often hit hardest by fuel increases because they drive longer distances for their commute.

Voters who feel disappointed or financially squeezed do disengage. This creates serious statewide and downstream problems for Republican candidates. This is especially true for county-level Republicans in tight political margin counties like Clark and Montgomery.

County commissioner races, auditor contests, and judicial elections this cycle are heavily dependent on reliable Republican turnout, particularly in suburban and rural Ohio counties. Unlike presidential races, these county contests are often decided by a relatively small number of motivated voters. If even a modest portion of Republican voters decide to skip the ballot, local races normally safe can suddenly become competitive.

Judicial races in Ohio depend on straight-ticket voting and overall partisan turnout. When enthusiasm declines among one party’s voters, judgeships that normally receive little public attention will tighten. Typically, lower-information races are vulnerable to turnout fluctuations.

Voters respond emotionally to affordability. They react to what they see on gas station signs every morning. They measure economic success by whether they can comfortably pay bills, buy groceries and fill their tank without anxiety.

For Ohio Republicans, rising fuel prices represent more than an economic problem but a true voter turnout problem. And in Ohio elections, turnout is often everything.

Rob Scott is the Kettering Clerk of Court, an attorney and a small-business owner. Contact him at rob@robscott.us.

This column first published on DaytonDailyNews.com. Read the full article here.