Ohio a true toss up this cycle

For most of the past decade, Ohio politics has been fairly predictable.

Republicans have won. Democrats hoped to keep it close.

Donald Trump carried Ohio by eight points in 2016, eight points in 2020 and 11 points in 2024. Republicans hold every statewide executive office, control the Ohio General Assembly and occupy most of Ohio’s congressional seats.

Yet with just weeks remaining before November’s election, Ohio finds itself in a position few expected: both the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race are genuine toss-ups.

For political junkies like myself, it is the most competitive statewide election cycle Ohio has seen in years. Other than the presidential cycles, likely 2006 when Republican Ken Blackwell faced Democrat Ted Strickland for the Ohio governor’s office and then U.S. Senator Mike DeWine facing Sherrod Brown.

In 2026, the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine features Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton.

On paper, Republicans should have the advantage. Ohio remains a Republican-leaning state, and Ramaswamy entered the race with strong name recognition, President Donald Trump’s endorsement and a fundraising machine capable of competing anywhere in the country.

Polling suggests the race is far closer. A Fox News poll released in August showed Ramaswamy leading Acton 50% to 48%. A Wedgewood poll conducted days later showed Acton ahead 47% to 46%. The current polling average places the race essentially even. 

Acton, Ohio’s former health director, remains a polarizing figure because of her role during the COVID-19 pandemic. Republicans continue to hammer her over lockdowns and public health orders, while Democrats view her as a competent public servant who guided Ohio through a crisis.

Ramaswamy has campaigned as an outsider determined to shake up Columbus. He has embraced the Trump agenda, focused heavily on education reform and economic growth, and attempted to nationalize the race whenever possible.

The race may ultimately be a test of whether Ohio’s Republican advantage remains as strong without Trump himself on the ballot.

If the governor’s race is close, the Senate race may be even more fascinating.

Republican Jon Husted, appointed to the Senate after Vice President J.D. Vance vacated the seat, faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Brown is one of the few Democrats in modern Ohio history who consistently attracted crossover support from working-class voters and is strong in Northeast Ohio. Even after losing his Senate seat in 2024, he remained one of the most recognizable political figures in the state.

The RealClearPolling average shows Brown holding a razor-thin advantage, 47.8% to 47.2%. A Fox News survey found Brown leading by eight points, 53% to 45%, a result that sent shockwaves through Republican circles. 

Surprisingly or maybe not, are the issues in voters' minds. 

Instead of immigration, taxes or abortion, much of the conversation has centered on data centers and energy policy in Ohio. Brown has aggressively attacked state incentives that helped attract major data center projects to Ohio, attempting to tie Husted to those developments. Republican strategists have privately acknowledged the issue has become a significant challenge.

A Fox News poll released this month found inflation remains the top issue for Ohio voters, with 40% identifying it as their biggest concern. The same poll found 38% of Ohioans believe their family's financial situation is falling behind, a significant increase from just a few years ago.

The fact Republicans are worried about holding a Senate seat in Ohio tells you everything you need to know about the current political environment.

If Republicans win both races, Ohio likely remains what it has been for the last decade: a reliably Republican state that occasionally produces competitive contests.

If Democrats win one or both races, it will force a serious conversation about whether Ohio is becoming competitive again.

My guess? Republicans still have a slight advantage because of Ohio’s recent voting history. However, the days when statewide Republicans could simply assume victory appear to be over in the current climate.

Competitive elections force candidates to engage with voters, defend their records and explain their vision for the future. They require campaigns to earn votes rather than expect them.

For the first time in years, both parties are spending heavily, organizing aggressively and treating Ohio as a state worth fighting for.

As someone who has spent years watching  and being highly involved in Ohio politics, I can tell you this much: when both sides believe they can win, voters usually benefit.

Rob Scott is the Kettering Clerk of Court, an attorney and a small-business owner. Contact him at rob@robscott.us.