Ohio election won't be decided by polls. It's about who shows up

It's time to vote. Early voting began Tuesday, Oct. 6. Absentee voting is underway. Election Day is Nov. 3.

If there is one lesson Ohio's political campaigns should have learned by now, it is this: This election will be decided less by who has the best television commercial and more by who can actually get their voters to the polls.

In other words, this election will be about turnout.

Ohio has more than 7.8 million registered voters, but the percentage who actually participate can change dramatically depending on the election. In the 2024 presidential election, 72% of registered Ohio voters cast a ballot. In the 2022 midterm, turnout was 52%. In May’s primary, 23% of registered voters participated, with 1.79 million ballots cast.

This major difference in voter turnout causes campaign strategies to be different. It also explains why polls should be watched but not viewed as gospel.

The current RealClearPolitics average has Democrat Sherrod Brown ahead of Republican Jon Husted by 3.1 points in the U.S. Senate race, 47.1% to 44%. In the governor's race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 4.2 points, 48.8% to 44.6%.

Both races are rated toss-ups by RealClearPolitics. Other Ohio polling has produced smaller margins showing both races are within the margin of error. 

The Husted-Brown Senate contest could have national consequences because control of the U.S. Senate is at stake. Also, Ohio is one of the states where congressional control could be affected, with two U.S. House races, the 7th and 9th districts viewed as toss-up contests. 

The governor's race between Ramaswamy and Acton is important for Ohio's future. The winner will inherit an enormous state government and decisions involving taxes, education, Medicaid, economic development, energy and much more.

Additionally, there are the statewide races that don't get the same attention. Ohio voters will elect an attorney general, auditor of state, secretary of state and treasurer. Two seats on the Ohio Supreme Court also are on the ballot.

These races will not generate the attention as the Senate or governor's contests, but the people elected to those offices will influence Ohio policy for years.

This makes turnout even more important. For Republicans, the challenge is turning enthusiasm into ballots. For Democrats, the challenge is the same.

Campaigns use voter turnout models to make critical decisions. Campaigns don't simply divide voters into Democrats, Republicans and independents but use data such as voter histories, registration information, demographic data, geography and other available data to assign individual voters a likelihood of turning out. Those scores help campaigns decide where to spend money and deploy volunteers, which voters need a reminder, which voters need repeated contact and which voters are likely to respond to a get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort.

President Donald Trump's decision to rally in Vandalia last week for Husted and Ramaswamy demonstrated just how much national attention is focused on Ohio and based on the need to push turnout amongst Republicans. Trump won the state in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and Republicans are trying to maintain the coalition that has made Ohio a reliably Republican presidential state recently. Democrats are attempting to capitalize on a competitive political environment and the traditional tendency of the president's party to face a more difficult midterm election, including affordability issues. 

In 2024, 2.6 million Buckeyes voted either early in person or absentee, accounting for roughly 45% of all votes cast. This means campaigns aren't simply fighting to get voters excited enough to vote on Nov. 3. They're fighting to get voters to vote, period.

Ohio gives voters plenty of opportunities to participate. Early in-person voting beganTuesday, with additional evening and weekend hours later in the month. On Nov. 3, Election Day, polls will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. 

The campaigns have spent months making their cases. This election won't be decided by who talks the loudest but who decides to show up.

Rob Scott is the Kettering Clerk of Court, an attorney, and a small-business owner. Contact him at rob@robscott.us.