Ohio's top races too close to call for now

If you're looking for certainty in Ohio politics, this isn't the year.

Despite Ohio's Republican past decade of success, both statewide races remain remarkably competitive heading into the fall campaign season.

According to the RealClearPolling average, Democrat Amy Acton holds a narrow 47.3% to 47.0% edge over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the race for governor. The U.S. Senate contest is even tighter, with former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Sen. Jon Husted by just six-tenths of a point, 47.8% to 47.2%. In both races, the margin is within the statistical margin of error. 

Political campaigns often focus on Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati media markets, but statewide elections are frequently won or lost in places like Warren County, Miami County, Greene County and Montgomery County. Republicans traditionally build statewide victories by running up large margins in Warren, Butler and Clermont counties. Democrats depend on strong performances in Montgomery County and Ohio's urban centers while limiting losses in the suburbs.

The path to victory for either party may run directly through the Interstate 75 corridor.

In Montgomery County, Democrats have generally maintained an advantage in recent statewide elections, but Republicans have become increasingly competitive. Meanwhile, Butler, Greene, Miami, Preble, and Warren County remain one of the strongest Republican counties in Ohio, regularly producing some of the largest GOP margins in the state.

The governor's race presents voters with two candidates who have never held elected office.

Ramaswamy, a Cincinnati native, entrepreneur and former presidential candidate, has campaigned on tax reductions, economic growth and restructuring state government. Backed by President Donald Trump, he emerged from the Republican primary as the clear standard-bearer for the party's future direction. 

Acton, Ohio's former health director, became a familiar face during the COVID-19 pandemic. Supporters credit her leadership on decisions of business shutdowns and social distancing in Ohio. Her campaign has focused heavily on affordability, healthcare access and housing costs. 

The race has become increasingly competitive. Outside groups have already committed tens of millions of dollars to advertising, signaling that national Republicans and Democrats alike view Ohio as a battleground worth fighting over. A pro-Ramaswamy super PAC recently launched a $25 million advertising campaign, underscoring how seriously both parties are taking the race.

When Vice President J.D. Vance resigned his Senate seat, Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Husted to fill the vacancy. Now Husted must persuade Ohio voters to give him a full six-year term.

Brown, meanwhile, is attempting something rarely seen in modern politics: a return to the Senate after losing reelection. Throughout his political career, Brown consistently outperformed many Democrats by focusing on manufacturing, organized labor and working-class voters. The closeness of the race suggests he remains a formidable statewide candidate despite Ohio's Republican trend.

Husted, a University of Dayton graduate and collegiate athlete, brings something few statewide candidates can match: a quarter-century of experience in Ohio government. He has served as speaker of the Ohio House, secretary of state, lieutenant governor and now U.S. senator. Along the way, he developed a reputation as a policy-focused administrator rather than a headline-seeking politician. Supporters point to initiatives such as TechCred, which expanded workforce training opportunities for Ohio workers, efforts to streamline business regulations and attracting economic development projects to the state. 

What makes both races fascinating is they may answer a question debated for years: Has Ohio permanently become a Republican state, or is it simply a Republican-leaning state that still rewards candidates who connect with voters beyond party labels?

The issues confronting Southwest Ohio voters are not particularly ideological. Polling indicates families are worried about rising property taxes, housing affordability, infrastructure demands, public safety and workforce shortages. Employers searching for skilled workers and local governments are balancing growth with demands for additional services.

Political consultants will spend the next several months dissecting polls, fundraising reports and television advertisements. Yet Ohio elections are frequently decided by voters who tune in after Labor Day and make up their minds during the campaign's final weeks.

For now, the polling suggests neither side has closed the deal.

That means every campaign stop, every advertisement and every voter contact effort matters. It also means voters in Southwest Ohio may once again find themselves playing an outsized role in determining the future of both Ohio and Washington.

Rob Scott is the Kettering Clerk of Court, an attorney and a small-business owner. Contact him at rob@robscott.us.

This column first published on DaytonDailyNews.com. Read the full article here.